Posts Tagged ‘predictions’

Pacific Sea Level One Year On

November 9, 2016

I was reminded by Jennifer Marohasy of my post a year ago (Pacific Sea Levels- Warming, ENSO, or Wind?) in which I showed that “Sea level rise in Kiribati and the Marshalls has nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with the ENSO cycle, and winds in particular.”

I wonder how things are going after 12 months?

Back then I had a brief exchange with one of the commenters, MorinMoss, a Global Warming Enthusiast, part of which included the following:

Me:

So Morin, getting back to sea levels in the Pacific, what do you think sea level at Kiribati will be a year from now- higher, lower, or the same as now, and why? I reckon it will be lower- because of the ENSO cycle. The Pacific will be in neutral or La Nina phase by then, trades will be dominant, with less westerly wind bursts on the Equator.

 MorinMoss:

Hard to say – there’s so much warm water in the Pacific that I think it’s too early to say how the cycle will progress.
We could be looking at a double-dip El Nino or a strong neutral (or would that be weak neutral?) phase, not proceeding immediately to a La Nina.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/science/global-warming-pacific-ocean-el-nino-blob.html

 Me:

Good-oh, we shall see!

So 12 months ago I predicted sea level at Kiribati would be lower because of the ENSO cycle.

Time for a reality check.

This was the position in my post last year:

k-msl-v-nino4

And this is the position now.

kiribati-msl-v-nino4

Kiribati sea level change still precedes NINO4 change, and sea level has fallen from the highest it had been in this record to about average.

Q.E.D.

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Weather predictions- final check

January 3, 2014

This is the final post in my series of checking a hunch that temperature change indicates a weather change 160 days later.

Back on November 3, I predicted:

“December
2 to 10 unstable; 12-13-14; 16-17-18-19; 22-23-24; 26 to 31 unstable.”

I did not change this in December.

This is how  I went:

Dec2013 predictions check

I’ve marked with green bars the predicted dates of unsettled weather as above.  Red bars show the actual times.  They match.

And finally, here’s my graph showing predicted weather events for April to June.  Again, green bars indicate dates when weather events may be expected.Apr-June 2014

I will leave this topic for now, not because the method doesn’t work (it does!), but to concentrate on other interests.

Weather predictions: December

December 1, 2013

At the start of November, I said:

“November
5 to 10 unstable; 13 to 21 unstable with several events; 26-27-28-29-30 unstable.”

All correct, 1 miss.  Instability with some very wild storms marked much of November especially in the South-East of the state.

Now I suppose anyone could have predicted storms for November.  But remember, back in August I had said:

“November

5-6-7, 9-10, 13-14-15, 17-18-19-20, 27-28-29.”

Here’s a chart showing August predictions in light green and early November predictions in dark green.octdec13resultsnov

5 right, I miss.  I should have stuck with my original predictions!

So the method is holding.

Predictions for December to 31 March remain the same as I predicted last month.  As well, I expect weather events around these dates in April and May (+/- 1 day):

2,4,7,11,15,20,23,25, May 1, 8,11.

April should have unstable weather, and I would not be surprised if we get significant rain.