I have been wondering whether the largest real-life science experiment in history will show whether atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will decrease as a result of the Covid19-induced economic slowdown.
Earlier I concluded: “I expect there may be a small decrease in the rate of CO2 concentration increase, but it won’t be much, and I will be surprised if it turns negative. A large La Nina later this year will lead to a CO2 increase a few months later, in which case there will be a larger downturn in annual CO2 change in 2021.
However, if the major cause of CO2 increase is fossil fuel consumption, there will be an extra large decrease in CO2 change in 2020 and 2021- and a noticeable jump if the global economy rebounds.”
(In a coming post I will update my expectations for the end of the year and next year.)
The CO2 concentration number for June is now published: 416.39 p.p.m. (parts per million). The seasonal drawdown of CO2 has begun, but CO2 concentration is 2.47 ppm above the figure for June last year. Figure 1 shows the 12 month change in CO2 at Mauna Loa since 2015-that is, January to January, February to February, March to March.
Fig. 1: 12 month change in CO2 concentration since 2015 to June 2020- Mauna Loa
Notice the amount of 12 month change has increased a little.
Figure 2 is a monthly update for 2020 I will show as each month’s CO2 figures become available (and 2021 if necessary):
Fig. 2: Updated 12 month changes in CO2 concentration for 2020- Mauna Loa
Note that so far this year, 12 month changes are in the normal or even upper range, and there is no sign of any slow down.
Watch for next month’s update, and enjoy the ride!
kenskingdom 
July 13, 2020 at 9:28 am
Ken does that first chart show what you say it does ? It’s showing a decline in CO2 I think…Or is that chart misleading ?
July 13, 2020 at 1:44 pm
Nope, a small uptick from May to June.
July 13, 2020 at 5:39 pm
So Ken, both charts are stating the amount by which CO2 has increased. But the way that chart 1 is displayed seems to indicate a fall in CO2.
Can I suggest that this is a confusing chart ?
Maybe it would be better to simply present the figures so the fact that it is still increasing each & every month ( despite the Covid 19 world wide shutdown ) stands out clear & simple.
July 31, 2020 at 10:28 am
Ken, NOAA trends in annual mean growth rate of co2 per decade are shown here 1960 to 2019. Since Paris COP 21 in DEC 2015 the trend has increased, so all pain for ZERO gain.
Dr Hansen said that Paris COP 21 was just BS and fra-d and Lomborg, Shellenberger etc seem to agree. Here’s the link to NOAA per decade trend chart since 1960.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html
July 31, 2020 at 10:35 am
Why am I in moderation? I left the U out of Dr Hansen’s F word, so what else is wrong?
July 31, 2020 at 4:52 pm
No idea. It does that sometimes for no apparent reason. I’ve been out all day and only just got back home.
August 1, 2020 at 9:31 am
Thanks Ken, just asking. BTW what do you think of the NOAA graph or chart since 1960? Also here’s Wiki’s graph of co2 emissions since 1970 or 1990 and “China + other countries” certainly making the most of the last 30 years and India will come on stronger very soon according to their media. It seems coal and other fossil fuels are very hard to beat, with exception of clueless OECD countries who seem to still believe in the S&W idiocy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
August 1, 2020 at 11:23 am
I agree entirely with you. I’ve posted a couple of times about world fossil fuels, that fossil fuel consumption has virtually no effect on CO2 levels, and completely swamp renewables.
August 3, 2020 at 8:20 am
Ken here’s the quote below from the CSIRO site of Cape Grim Tassie. The NH is a NET source of co2 and the SH is a NET SINK. Just a pity that Flannery and his Climate Council mob + our govts + world govts + thousands of so called scientists etc don’t understand any of this and today the NH pop is about 7 billion and the SH just 0.8 billion.
The so called mitigation of their so called CAGW is the greatest fra-d and con trick in history, just ask China, India and non OECD countries who must be laughing all the way to their banks. Here’s the CSIRO link, see under heading “Seasonal variation”. The latest reading in June is 409.5 ppm.
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/Latest-greenhouse-gas-data
Seasonal variation
“Carbon dioxide concentrations show seasonal variations (annual cycles) that vary according to global location and altitude. Several processes contribute to carbon dioxide annual cycles: for example, uptake and release of carbon dioxide by terrestrial plants and the oceans, and the transport of carbon dioxide around the globe from source regions (the Northern Hemisphere is a net source of carbon dioxide, the Southern Hemisphere a net sink).
The Cape Grim baseline carbon dioxide data displayed show both the annual cycle and the long-term trend”.
August 3, 2020 at 9:50 am
I’ve been wondering about the Cape Grimm CO2 data for a while.
Would Cape Grimm show the huge global Covid 9 shut down/lock down that started in March 2020 ? This global shut down is continuing in many parts of the world as of today the 3/8/2020.
1 : Unfortunately CSIRO & BOM are only showing their measurements of CO2 at Cape Grim up to the 15th of June 2020.No July data yet !
2 : But the period from March 2020 to June 2020 shows no reduction in CO2 in the atmosphere – despite the global economy virtually shutting down for three months. CO2 levels have increased from 408.3 on the 15th of February to 409.5 on the 15th of June.
Now that is a huge big “Black Swan”
August 3, 2020 at 10:08 am
These thoughts expanded on here at BOM Weather Watch on Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/groups/2688077244565417/
August 3, 2020 at 3:09 pm
A couple of months ago Dr Roy Spencer was checking on the CV-19 effect on co2 levels if there was an 11% reduction in emissions this year.
He found that it would take about 4 times that or about 43% reduction to see the co2 levels start to fall. Here’s a quote from his article.
“I had previously explained why the slowdown would likely not be large enough to affect measured atmospheric CO2 levels compared to natural variations in global sources and sinks of CO2. I calculated that the Energy Information Administration-estimated 11% reductions in CO2 emissions during 2020 would have to be four times larger to stop the rise of atmospheric CO2 over 2019 values (assuming no substantial natural variations in CO2 sources and sinks).”
Here’s his article up to the end of May 2020.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/06/covid-19-global-economic-downturn-not-affecting-co2-rise-may-2020-update/
But in 2018 Maths guru Nic Lewis checked the claims of Zickfeld et al that co2 levels would not fall for a thousand years, even if ALL human co2 emissions stopped today.
This was from the Royal Society question 20 Q&A.
This was written up by the Royal Society + US NAS study using Zickfeld. Here’s Nic’s article from Dr Jennifer Curry’s site, checking the Zickfeld study in 2018.
Certainly the ice cores sometimes show temp dropping and then delays of thousands of years before co2 levels start to fall. Lomborg shows this in”Cool It” quoting Petit et al.
August 3, 2020 at 9:55 pm
I’ve given up trusting Roy Spencer. He uses very complicated mathematics as a way of confusing the rest of us…Similar to what the Global Warmists do. So I keep the logic & the reasoning simple :
1: Every year in the Northern Spring as plants grow after the Northern Winter, CO2 levels in the air DROP. And this process is recorded in the Cape Grimm chart.
2 : And then in the Northern Autumn as plants go into hibernation for Winter CO2 is released again and levels of CO2 go up again.
That’s Natural process !
A steady state process !
3: But theCape Grimm chart shows rising levels of CO2 over the past ~50 years. So some other process(es) is/are adding CO2 to the air every year.
4: Global Warmists ‘assert’ that humans with our fossil fuel burning ( coal, peat, oil, gas etc) are causing that increase in CO2 levels in the air. every year.
5 : The global economic shutdown due to the Covid pandemic lead to a massive reduction is the burning of fossil fuels from February through to June.
6 THUS : the reduction in global economic activity and fossil fuel burning, SHOULD be reflected by a reduction in CO levels in the air in this period.
6: But instead the CO2 levels in the air rose by 1.1 ppm.
Clearly humans have bugger all impact on the amount of CO2 in the air ! Some other unknown, or ignored, natural processes must be impacting the CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
QED
August 4, 2020 at 8:28 am
Here’s that Royal Society question 20 Q&A that Nic Lewis fact checked at Climate Etc in DEC 2018. The study used was Zickfeld et al.
https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-20/
August 4, 2020 at 9:53 am
Yet another argument from a flawed authority !
Who ever wrote that for Royal Society is ignoring the evidence !
What evidence ?
The evidence from all the radio-active Carbon 14 created by nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, from the 1940’s to the 1960’s. Carbon 14 has a half life of 5700 years, yet almost all that C14 has disappeared from the atmosphere. Most of it has been absorbed into the oceans.
If the Royal Society was right then almost that Carbon 14 would still be around in the air.
It is NOT.
Logic & reason trumps pious brainwaves.
QED !