The Pause Update: February 2016

UPDATE!

Firstly, I must apologise for the late posting.  We went away for a two week road trip in early March, during which my laptop died.  As well, we have had some family issues that have taken priority.

UAH v6.0 data for February have been released. Here are updated graphs for various regions showing the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than +0.1C/ 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures.    Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 3 months long- 447 months.  12 month running means commence in November 1979.

Despite the record TLT for February, I am sorry to disappoint GWEs that The Pause has not disappeared.  In some regions it has lengthened, in others it has shortened, and in the Northern Extra-Tropics it has disappeared (by my criterion)- but mostly it has remained at the same length.

[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

Feb 16 globe

There has been zero trend for 18 years and 10 months.

Update:  Some commenters (see below) think that use of 12 month running means are some form of trick to hide the data, and that using monthly data will show no Pause.  Poor souls.  Here is the graph of global monthly anomalies:

global monthly

18 years 7 months- not much difference, and The Pause still lives!

Fools rush in….

Northern Hemisphere:

Feb 16 NH

 

Southern Hemisphere:

Feb 16 SH

For well over half the record the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.

Tropics:

Feb 16 Tropics

Tropical Oceans:

Feb 16 Tropic Oceans

 

Northern Extra-Tropics (20-60N- where most people live):

Feb 16 NH Ext Trop

The Pause has ceased in this region as the trend since July 1998 is a tad over +0.1C (+/- 0.1C) per 100 years.

Southern Hemisphere Extra-Tropics (mostly water):

Feb 16 SH Ext Trop

But still strong in the South!

North Polar:

Feb 16 NP

The Pause has lengthened by three months.

South Polar:

Feb 16 SP

For the whole of the satellite record, the South Polar region has been cooling.  So much for a fingerprint of warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect being greater warming at the Poles!

Australia:

Feb 16 Aus

One month longer.

USA 49 states:

Feb 16 USA

Despite all expectations to the contrary, The Pause lives on!

 

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46 Responses to “The Pause Update: February 2016”

  1. “Global Warming” Reality Check Februar 2016: Die globale Erwärmungs”pause” seit 1997 setzt sich fort – RSS 0,94 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] von UAH v6.0 seit Mai 1997 bis Februar 2016 trotz Rekordtemperaturen wegen El Niño. Quelle: The Pause Update: February 2016 Die globalen Temperaturabweichungen der unteren Troposphäre (TLT) von RSS zeigen trotz eines […]

  2. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken have you seen Jennifer’s latest post about recent Antarctic ice loss?

    http://jennifermarohasy.com/2016/03/satellite-based-global-temperatures-trending-up/#comment-581914

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Yes I have. Jennifer calls an end to the pause but I think it’s too early. It will probably disappear for good in the next month or two but obviously not yet. While we see zero trend for longer than 10 years there’s still a pause.

  3. Kim Weaver Says:

    Total nonsense.

  4. Kim Weaver Says:

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/pause-in-warming-debunked

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-global-warming-paused/

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/24/yet-another-study-debunks-the-global-warming-pause/

    http://phys.org/news/2015-09-global-theory-dead-twitching.html

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/25/3475168/global-warming-atlantic/

    http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

    http://billmoyers.com/2014/05/16/eight-pseudo-scientific-climate-claims-debunked-by-real-scientists/

    http://www.astronomynotes.com/solarsys/s11b.htm

    http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-and-statistics-on-global-warming-climate-change-2015-12?r=UK&IR=T

    More coming. But answer these first.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Ah, there we have…. a list of links. Which results in going into moderation.
      So your argument is.. a list of links? Perhaps you could elucidate how each of them relates to or contradicts my post? Do you deny the data? Is there a problem with my methodology? Or does my post just contradict everything you’ve always accepted as gospel?
      Now this is how it works. I post, (which in effect answers many of the opinions above, and provides evidence to back up my findings as well), then you comment on what I say, pointing out errors of fact or logic. If you can’t do that I can only assume you have no arguments of your own and no capacity to construct any.
      Over to you. And please, no more lists of links. Your ‘comment’ will just go into moderation until I get around to checking, which slows the whole process down.

  5. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken you’ve shown a pause over the majority of the planet and 6 areas exceed 20 years. Have you ever looked at the length of time that those areas have had no statistically significant warming?
    Some must exceed a quarter of a century? Even the N extra tropics must have had no SS warming for a long time?

    • kenskingdom Says:

      1. No, others have done that e.g Steve McIntyre. My aim is to look at the Pause as a zero trend that is undeniable i.e. less than +0.1C+/-0.1C per century- a trend that is zero within the uncertainty range. No arguments about whether it is statistically significant.
      2. Undoubtedly yes.
      3. Yes, the NH extra tropics have had little warming trend for a long time. Less than 0.3C/100 years since December 1997 is hardly alarming. However this area has been warming, and has been the driving factor in NH warming.

  6. UAH: Globale Erwärmungs”Pause” dauert trotz kräftigem El Niño an! Der Südpol kühlt seit 1978 ab! – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] der sehr lesenswerten australischen Website kenskingdom zeigt das laufende 12-Monatsmittel der UAH v6.0 Daten die Entwicklung von den aktuellen […]

  7. spaatch Says:

    The pause is dead…

  8. spaatch Says:

    Interesting how your graphs are all out of date. Why didn’t you make them up to the end of Feb 2016?

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Oh dear. Silly me, I thought readers would know that when the post is entitled ‘Update February 2016’ this shows that February data have been included and my graphs are completely up to date. Especially when in the second paragraph the 447 months of satellite record are mentioned. But no doubt you didn’t bother with mere details like actually reading an offending post. Yes the February anomaly is +0.83, my running 12 month mean +0.34, which is a little above Roy Spencer’s 13 month mean- but there is still The Pause to frustrate you. Sorry to disappoint you, but the pause is not yet dead.

  9. miker Says:

    Nick, the reason why the graphs appear to end sometime in 2015 is a consequence of Ken’s determination to keep the pause alive by the use of 12 month smoothing.

    If the 12 month running average is  centred, then the last month will be 5 or 6 months prior to Feb 2016. Alternatively, if the 12 month average is used to represent the prior 12 months, then the data will end in February 2016. The third possibility is that the average is plotted for the following 12 months, which means the last month shown would be February 2015 which appears to be the case. All very messy and unnecessary.

     The only plausible reason Ken, does this, is that he cannot accept that the global pause  is no longer and has to resort to concealing this by smoothing.

    Yes seaice1 is correct. The trend for the averaged data is different. This ocurs because the rapid rise of the last few months is diluted by averaging with the prior months, which in turn reduces the current  trend. So yes, Ken is right when he says he uses all the data but he is not just using the “raw data” .

     In the long run it will not change things, but just keeps the corpse on ice for a few months. As night follows day, even Ken’s manipulations will come to naught by the time the effects of  the current El-Nino flows through the averaging process. I pointed this out several months ago in a bit more detail see –  https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2016/01/17/trending-trends/#comment-14521 .

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Good morning Mike
      I knew there was a reason I moderate your comments. See again my explanation below. The ‘only plausible reason’ is that I am showing what the data tell us.

  10. spaatch Says:

    Yes it’s clear that kenskingdom is resorting to the usual data hiding tricks of using a running mean. It’s done that way so the sceptics can sleep soundly at night, blissful in their ignorance of what the data is telling us…

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Good morning Nick, Seaice, Spaatch.
      My graphs clearly show the data finishes as of February 2016, not 2015. See your optometrist. The reason for using a 12 month running mean is that there is a small seasonal auto correlation with monthly anomalies which is removed by a 12 month mean. Think of the value as the year ending February 2016. You don’t think an annual mean is a ‘data hiding trick’ do you?
      I was as surprised as anyone to see the Pause still here in February, and no doubt it will disappear in the next couple of months. As I said in my last post, I don’t expect the Pause to return until early 2018, but it is still here. And while it remains,suffer.

    • Nick Says:

      So your 12 month running means end November 2015, but the lines plotted end Feb 2015.

      Data is but putty in your hands.

      “And while it remains,suffer.” I don’t think I’m the one who’s suffering.

      What’s wrong with Roy Spencer’s plot, as posted by Spaatch? Where did he go wrong, wanting to show that?

  11. kenskingdom Says:

    I am busy today with personal matters so there may be no comments from me until tomorrow. Don’t worry, I’ll be back.

  12. kenskingdom Says:

    To Mike, Nick, Seaice, and Spaatch: And Kim.

    I’ve got a couple of minutes. 12 month running means do not make much of a difference to the length of The Pause. If you had the nous you would have checked the data before spouting your complete rubbish.

    Using monthly anomalies- no 12 month means at all- The Pause is now 18 years and 7 months long. The trend since August 1997 is less than +0.1 +/-0.1C/100 years.

    Here’s a simple request: before you comment, make sure your feet are not in your mouth(s). Do what I do and check the data. If you can.

    • Nick Says:

      I expect internal variability to always be a big feature of the years of our lives. If you ‘had the nous’ you’d respect the physical reality of the system as it warms. Just plot the data from the start and use OLs….annual running means just show us that we’ll always have weather while the climate warms or cools

  13. spaatch Says:

    It’s all a moot point anyway seeing as the “pause” is way up there in the upper atmosphere where cruising aircraft hang out. Down here at ground level where it matters there is no pause…

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Hmmm, goal post movement underway… I’ll take that as a compliment!
      That’s an old canard. Tropospheric temperatures give us a very good picture of what the bulk atmosphere is doing. This is where amplification due to water vapour is supposed to be occurring. Surface temperatures are useful for weather observations and forecasts of course. I’ll stick to satellite data for these posts, although I sometimes use surface data for other issues. You’ll need to visit another site if your interest is surface temperatures.

  14. kenskingdom Says:

    Hi Nick. It looks like I’ll have to take things nice and slowly with you so you can keep up. My 12 month running means finish in February 2016 (not sure where November 2015 came from, and February 2015?????) Perhaps you are unaware that UAH monthly data commences in December 1978, so the vertical grid lines and their labels are at December of each year. Get it? The graph line ends two data points into 2016.
    Nothing at all wrong with Roy Spencer’s plot of monthly anomalies. You might note however that his plot starts at January 1979, so the gridlines show the start of each year, whereas mine show the end of each year. And if you scroll up to the top I have put in an update showing monthly anomalies and guess what- there’s an 18 year 5 months Pause.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      18 years and 7 months.

    • miker Says:

      Hi Ken,

       Which of the many versions of the UAH data sets are uou using? For  UAH v6 beta 5 , from May 1997 until the present, I am getting a slope of -0.0119 C  per decade for the 12 month averaged global data, while for the raw data,  the figure I get for the same period  is +0.017 C per decade.  This illustrates the marked difference berweem trends calculated using smoothed data versus raw data.

      The smallest trend value for the raw data is  +0.0076 C per decade for December 1997 until the present.

       This latter figure is just below your arbritrary threshold of +0.01 C per decade but this threshold will be exceeded when March’s number comes in (unless it comes in below 0.32 C which is extremely unlikely ) .

      Maybe you will need to double or triple your threshold. That will give you a couple more months. Alternatively you could smooth the data over 2 years or longer.  A 37 year smooth is guaranteed to give you a zero trend.

      I thinkIi said all this pause nonsense would end in tears back in my comments of October last year. You did not have to be particularly prescient to realize this. It looks like the chickens are on their way home to roost.

      p.s, to make sure we are on the same page, the 12 month average including the prior 11 months  for Feb 2016 i s 0.3375 ( plotted on your graph at March 2015?)

    • Nick Says:

      I look at your graphs and your trace ends very early 2015…in every one.

      At least you put the full satellite period in and calculate OLS. At climatically meaningful scales….and isn’t this about the climate?…there is no pause.

      Internal variability is a product of solar energy hitting a spinning variably tilting spherical earth that has a certain distribution of continental surface and deep and extensive water oceans. Take a short period of measurement of one metric in one part of the system and you will see that variability reflected in the monthly, annual and decadal ‘volatility’ of the data. What is the physical meaning of the ‘pause’ you wish to perpetuate with your graphic choices, and your choice of medium and measurement site?

      • kenskingdom Says:

        I regret that your comprehension is no better than your eyesight.
        The physical meaning of the pause is that natural variability completely overwhelms the small impact of greenhouse gases.

        • Nick Says:

          “The physical meaning of the pause is that natural variability completely overwhelms the small impact of greenhouse gases”… at what scale? If you are implying the long term, then you are demonstrably wrong. If you think the a decade or so is relevant in a climate, then you are on the wrong path.

          The pause is a statistical artifact that tells you more about your choice of data and processing than any underlying physical reality. The pause only appears in one dataset with serious processing issues.

          Internal variability in the short term has always been understood to be ‘stronger’ than the warming signal in the short term. Look at the trace, and it tells you that: since the late 1800s GAT has risen, and internal variability plays around the rising mean. A 0.2C/decade rising trend will be obscured by variability of 1C around that mean.

          That’s why looking at short periods of data is a tangential indulgence. It has no predictive power, yet most rejectionists think that if the signal flattens for five years, a decade or two then it must signal a peak or crest, and cooling is on the way. Or warming has stopped indefinitely. But behind the data is the physical reality of continual injection of GHGs into the atmosphere, the rise in GHG level, the shrinking of the cryosphere and net change to albedo, and a lack of orbital or long term solar forcing change that could possibly challenge the warming forcing. In terms of watts per square meter, rising CO2 is the dominant climate forcing of the last century plus…your job seems to be finds flawed metric and ignore the physics, and jump at wiggles

          Hope that’s nice and slow enough for you , Ken.

  15. miker Says:

    Ken, I agree wholeheartedly. Quibbling over the minutae is pointless.

    I personally can wait a few more months for your idiosyncratic pause to be consigned to the dustbin of history. Your future updates will then become even more amusing.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Not as amusing as the continuing gyrations of Global Warming Enthusiasts have been, and will surely be again when the pause returns in 2018. But I will call it whichever way it is, based on the data.

  16. ngard2016 Says:

    So what happens after the next la nina and perhaps a fall in global temps?
    There is the possibility we could see a fall in temps in a year or so. What then? Of course that’s providing we don’t have more excessive infilling and homogenisation to help the surface data-sets.

  17. ngard2016 Says:

    The March UAH V 6 update is 0.73 C , that’s 0.1 C lower than February. Roy seems to think we may see cooling now as the next la nina starts to develop later this year.
    I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/04/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-march-2016-0-73-deg-c/

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