The Pause: October 2015 Update

UAH v6.0 data for October were released on today.  Here are updated graphs for various regions showing the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than +0.01C/ 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures.  The strongest El Nino since 1997-98 has struck down its  first victim!  There is now NO pause in the Northern Hemisphere data.  However, in some regions it has lengthened.  Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978.  The entire satellite record is 36 years and 11 months long.



Zero trend oct 2015 globe

There has been zero trend for over half the record.

Northern Hemisphere:

It might be something I’m getting wrong in my calculations, but the Pause has suddenly disappeared.

The trend since December 1997 is +0.17C/ 100 years +/-0.1C.

Southern Hemisphere:

Zero trend oct 2015 SH

The Pause has extended by several months.  For more than half the record the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.


Zero trend oct 2015 tropics

Unchanged from last month.

Tropical Oceans:

Zero trend oct 2015 tropic oceans

Unchanged from last month.

North Polar:

Zero trend oct 2015 N Polar

The Pause has lengthened by one month.

South Polar:

Zero trend oct 2015 S Polar

For the whole of the satellite record, the South Polar region has had zero or negative trend.  So much for a fingerprint of warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect being greater warming at the Poles!


Zero trend oct 2015 oz

The Pause has lengthened by two months.

USA 49 states:

Zero trend oct 2015 USA49

Four months shorter.

And now, in breaking news, for those who were waiting to hear whether satellite data confirm October 2015 as Australia’s hottest ever………

Oz October rankings

Sorry, but this October ranked 12th out of 37.  It made the hottest third (just).

The Pause continues.

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13 Responses to “The Pause: October 2015 Update”

  1. Viv Forbes Says:

    Where is the Northern Hemisphere data?

  2. Mareeba Property Management Says:

    Reblogged this on Mbafn's Blog and commented:
    I have seen the “Pause” today, when I stopped and looked at a coockaburra eating a little fish.

  3. siliggy Says:

    Have been watching the total Solar Irradiance for a long time since the sunspots went into decline. It has not dropped but has been high due to a lack of dark spots at cycle peak. This means the planet SHOULD have warmed. Your charts help to show it was not CO2 that caused the NH pause to dissappear because it is long in the tropics. So I suspect the NH warming has been caused by a reduction in convection there due to wind turbines. To me this seems the clearest proof yet that wind turbines cause global warming.

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Although NH has +0.17C/100 yrs trend since December 1997, NH Land has had zero trend since March 2005, and NH Oceans since September 1996. If the October anomaly for 2015 had been just 0.06C less, at 0.58, the trend from December 1997 would have been +0.008, therefore Paused. Missed it by that much!

  4. Neville Says:

    That big NH change is strange. Yet the north polar pause has lengthened by one month?

  5. Peter C Says:

    The End of the Pause could be premature. Give it another few months. If the UAH anomaly for the NH goes back down the pause will be back and longer than ever!

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Atmospheric anomalies usually lag behind the El Nino peak by 5 to 7 months. UAH is likely to go up before it comes down. But it will come down later next year.

  6. Werner Brozek Says:

    Last month, the northern hemisphere pause started very close to the December 1997 spike. When you are that close to the spike, there is little wiggle room so a higher October anomaly can easily wipe out the pause.

    (P.S. Thank you for your graphs, of which I used one here:

    • kenskingdom Says:

      Thanks for that comment at WUWT, I saw it at the time. Disappearing pauses are interesting but not devastating. I fully expect all Pauses will be back in action later next year.

  7. “Global Warming” Reality Check Oktober 2015 – Die globale Abkühlung seit 1998 dauert an: RSS 0,44 | wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause: October 2015 Update […]

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