The Pause Update: May 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for May were released on today.  I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison.  The Pause still refuses to go away, despite all expectations.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 6 months long- 450 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are May 2016.

 [CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

May16 globe

The 12 month mean to May 2016 is +0.46C.  The Pause is still an embarrassing reality! However, it may “disappear” soon with a small positive trend.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies, which shows that The Pause is over by my rather strict criterion:

May16 globe mthly

+0.27C/100 years since December 1997- not exactly alarming.  The Pause will return sooner with monthly anomalies than 12 month means of course.

Northern Hemisphere:

May16 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has “disappeared” as expected.  Note the not very alarming warming of 0.14+/- 0.1C per 100 years for half the record compared with 1.35C for the whole period.

Southern Hemisphere:

May16 SH

The pause has shortened by one month.  For well over half the record the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.

Tropics:

May16 Tropics

The Pause has shortened dramatically with the El Nino influence, but is still over half the record.

Tropical Oceans:

May16 Tropic oceans

The Pause has shortened by 19 months.

Northern Extra Tropics:

May16 Nth ExTropics

The Pause by this criterion has ended in this region, however note that the slope since 1998 is +0.23 +/- 0.1C per 100 years compared with +1.58C for the whole period.  That’s still embarassingly slow warming.

Southern Extra Tropics:

May16 Sth ExTropics

The Pause has lengthened by another month.

Northern Polar:

May16 NP

The Pause has decreased by 2 months.

Southern Polar:

May16 SP

The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record.

USA 49 States:

May16 USA49

No change.

Australia:

May16 Oz

The Australian Pause has lengthened rapidly.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause length may16

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in the Northern Extra Tropics and the Northern Hemisphere, but apart from the North Polar region, all other regions have a Pause of 18 years 9 months or longer- well over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Trends 1978 may16

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Trends Jun98 may16

The only region to show strong warming for this period (18 years) is the North Polar region: the Northern Extra Tropics and the Northern Hemisphere have very mild warming but all other regions are Paused or cooling. In fact “global” warming since June 1998 is limited to that part of the globe north of 20 degrees North.  And the lower troposphere over Australia has had strong cooling for the past 18 years.

12 month means will continue to grow for the next few months, so the Pause as  here defined may disappear shortly, and may not reappear until early 2018.  The impact of the coming La Nina will be worth watching.  Unless temperatures reset at a new, higher level and continue rising, very low trends will remain.

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10 Responses to “The Pause Update: May 2016”

  1. Mason I. Bilderberg (MIB) Says:

    Reblogged this on ILLuMiNuTTi.com and commented:
    With regards to global warming, “… apart from the North Polar region, all other regions have a Pause of 18 years 9 months or longer- well over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.”

  2. Die globale Abkühlung verstärkt sich – „Global Warming“ Reality Check Mai 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause Update: May 2016 […]

  3. trevor Says:

    could you please send emails to — tmprowse@iinet.net,au —-in future——-trevor

  4. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken why do you think Co2 ( since 1998) can strongly warm the NP, N ex T and NH , yet cool OZ and not warm the S polar region since Dec 1978? I know this is UAH lower T temps and not the surface, but isn’t their Co2 driver supposed to warm both poles and warm the lower T faster than the surface?
    Could most of the NP warming be just the warm phase of the AMO? Anyway we could see a shift to cool phase within the next few years and perhaps find the answer. Who knows?

  5. kenskingdom Says:

    Agreed!

  6. Absturz der globalen Temperaturen! Ungewöhnlich schwache Sonne – La Niña kommt: „Global Warming“ Reality Check Juni 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] Der Plot zeigt das laufende 12-Monatsmittel der globalen Satellitendaten von UAH v6.0 von Dezember 1978 (Beginn der Satellitenmessungen) bis Mai 2016. Von September 1997 bis Mai 2016 (dicke braune Linie) gibt es keinen globalen Temperaturanstieg, also seit 18 Jahren und 9 Monaten oder 225 Monaten. Dies ist die Hälfte des gesamten Messzeitraums seit Dezember 1978. (dünne braune waagerechte Linie) Quelle: The Pause Update: May 2016 […]

  7. Schwache Sonne – kühle Erde! La Niña ist da: „Global Warming“ Reality Check Juli 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause Update: May 2016 […]

  8. Das Jahr 2016 ist nun kälter als 1998: „Global Warming“ Reality Check August 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause Update: May 2016 […]

  9. Das Jahr 2016 bleibt kälter als 1998: „Global Warming“ Reality Check September 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung Says:

    […] The Pause Update: May 2016 […]

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