The Pause Update: August 2016

The complete UAH v6.0 data for August were released on yesterday. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. The Pause has finally ended globally and for the Northern hemisphere, but still refuses to go away in the Southern Hemisphere.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 9 months long- 453 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are August 2016.




The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.13C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since March 1998 must make GWEs tremble with joy.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

Still +0.33C/100 years since December 1997- not exactly alarming. The Pause will return sooner with monthly anomalies than 12 month means of course.

Northern Hemisphere:


The Northern Hemisphere Pause has ended. Note the not very alarming warming of 0.33C +/- 0.1C per 100 years for half the record compared with 1.39C for the whole period.

Southern Hemisphere:


For well over half the record, the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.



The Pause has shortened again with the El Nino influence, but is still over half the record. However, don’t be surprised if the Pause disappears next month.

Tropical Oceans:


The Pause has shortened by another 3 months- the El Nino now having a strong effect on the 12 month means.

Northern Extra Tropics:


The Pause by this criterion has ended in this region, however note that the slope since 1998 is +0.39 +/- 0.1C per 100 years compared with +1.61C for the whole period- a quarter of the rate.

Southern Extra Tropics:


No change.

Northern Polar:


The Pause has ended in this region. (No cause for celebration- we definitely would not want to see cooling here!)

Southern Polar:


The South Polar region has been cooling for the entire record- 36 years 10 months.

USA 49 States:


No change in length of the Pause.



No change here either.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:


Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, but the Tropics and all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:


Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:


The only region to show strong warming for this period (18 years 3 months) is the North Polar region: the Northern Extra Tropics, Tropics, the Northern Hemisphere, and the Globe have mild warming but all other regions (including all of the Southern Hemisphere) are Paused or cooling. The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious. The lower troposphere over Australia has been strongly cooling for more than 18 years- just shy of half the record.

The next few months will be interesting. The Pause should disappear from the Tropics next month and the Southern Hemisphere should follow. How long will the Pause last in the Southern Extra Tropics and South Polar regions?

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9 Responses to “The Pause Update: August 2016”

  1. ngard2016 Says:

    Ken you’re showing a trend of about 0.17 c/ century of global warming since June 1998. Is that correct? The WFT’s site seems to be about 0.5 c / century for UAH V 6. Perhaps it’s not the latest updated version 6?

  2. Kevin Hearle Says:

    Hi, is it possible to get the situation for NZ land mass from the UAH data. ?

  3. Kevin Hearle Says:

    Thanks for that info and congrats on a great article very informative

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