Pacific Sea Level One Year On

I was reminded by Jennifer Marohasy of my post a year ago (Pacific Sea Levels- Warming, ENSO, or Wind?) in which I showed that “Sea level rise in Kiribati and the Marshalls has nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with the ENSO cycle, and winds in particular.”

I wonder how things are going after 12 months?

Back then I had a brief exchange with one of the commenters, MorinMoss, a Global Warming Enthusiast, part of which included the following:


So Morin, getting back to sea levels in the Pacific, what do you think sea level at Kiribati will be a year from now- higher, lower, or the same as now, and why? I reckon it will be lower- because of the ENSO cycle. The Pacific will be in neutral or La Nina phase by then, trades will be dominant, with less westerly wind bursts on the Equator.


Hard to say – there’s so much warm water in the Pacific that I think it’s too early to say how the cycle will progress.
We could be looking at a double-dip El Nino or a strong neutral (or would that be weak neutral?) phase, not proceeding immediately to a La Nina.


Good-oh, we shall see!

So 12 months ago I predicted sea level at Kiribati would be lower because of the ENSO cycle.

Time for a reality check.

This was the position in my post last year:


And this is the position now.


Kiribati sea level change still precedes NINO4 change, and sea level has fallen from the highest it had been in this record to about average.


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6 Responses to “Pacific Sea Level One Year On”

  1. Jennifer Marohasy Says:

    You are one perceptive guy, Ken Stewart – usually well ahead of me when it comes to working these things out. Thanks for this. Jen

  2. John in Oz Says:

    This ass-covering, possible/may/could response to your question:

    Hard to say – there’s so much warm water in the Pacific that I think it’s too early to say how the cycle will progress.

    is typical of the CAGW adherents even though the ‘science is settled’.

    I look forward to MorinMoss’s use of the ‘settled science’ to explain your correct prediction (and Nature’s total disdain for the same ‘settled science’.

  3. craigm350 Says:

    Reblogged this on CraigM350.

  4. Stan Cook Says:

    To help with your analysis of Pacific Ocean sea levels please visit the Bureau of Meteorology web site at and click on the Monthly Sea Level and Meteorological Statistics which will take you to . This brings up a map showing the western Pacific Islands. The PDF plots for each of the sites will provide the sea level variation data you need from 1993 to 2015. This provides further support for the view that levels have remained essentially static since 1993.

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