Archive for September, 2011

An Apology

September 7, 2011

I have not been able to give much attention to this blog for the past couple of months due to family circumstances, so I am sorry to be well
behind with my posts.

September Global temperature is posted below, but it will be a week or two at least until the first of my next posts, which will be:

  • An analysis of the BOM explanations for their adjustments to the raw temperature data
  • Long term SOI influences on global temperature
  • An analysis of Australian minima 1910-2010.

Thanks for your patience.

Advertisements

Global Temperature Page- September

September 7, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available. The August UAH value is +0.33 making the running 12 month mean +0.20 +/- 0.1.

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH 12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

+0.25

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

+0.22

June 2011

+0.16 +/- 0.1

+0.21

July 2011

+0.12 +/- 0.1

+0.21

August 2011

+0.07 +/- 0.1

+0.20

September 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

October 2011

+0.01 +/- 0.1

November 2011

0 +/- 0.1

December 2011

0.02 +/- 0.1

January 2012

0.05+/- 0.1

February 2012

0.04+/- 0.1

 

My short term predictions are straying from the observations, so some adjustments to my methodology are necessary. With La Nina seeming likely, I have factored in SOI values of +10 until April next year.

Here is a plot of my expected long term values of the 12 month running mean of UAH anomalies, barring major volcanic eruptions or a significant shift in climate regime (which certainly is on the cards).

My tip is that temperatures will be largely in the middle to lower portion, but will rise towards the upper limit with El Ninos. This will be the subject of a large post I have been promising for months but am little closer to completing.

I’m also tipping a significant weather event in Eastern Australia (storms or rain) around the end of September to the first week in October, give or take a few days.