Archive for May, 2011

Profits of Doom

May 24, 2011

International climax expert Professor Tom Foolery today warned Australian men that “It’s worse than we thought.”

“By the end of the century, extreme climax events are going to be more frequent.  Partners will expect such events not once a year, but once a month, even ten times a month.  I don’t think Aussie men are up to it.  It will be the end of life as we know it.  Thank goodness I won’t be around to see it,” Professor Foolery said.

Fellow Biblical prophecy expert Professor Will E. Stepinit agreed, saying,  “The end is nigh.  Verily I say unto you, the seas will rise up and swallow you; yea, even unto the hundredth centimetre.  You may not see any rise yet, but your children and your children’s children will surely not have so far to go to the beach.”

Another nappy change expert, Professor Huggies, also said on ABC Radio, “We haven’t noticed so much sea level rise because the land is rising too; but the sea is still rising.  In fact it’s doubled in the last 20 years.  You fools can’t see it because the whole of Australia has risen twice as fast in the past 20 years as well.  Geologists are just too dumb to notice.”

I asked an Aussie bloke what he thought of the predictions of these profits- (Is that the right spelling?  That’s what they do.)- from the Climate Commission.

“Tell ‘em they’re dreamin’, ” he said.

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Second Open Letter to Tony Burke

May 23, 2011

Readers may be wondering if I have received any explanation from BOM for the worst of the adjustments to the raw temperature data I identified last year (here and here, and update).  The short answer is no,  so I sent a reminder.

19 May 2011

The Hon Tony Burke MP

Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities

PO Box 6022
House of Representatives
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600

Dear Mr Burke

I refer to the letter written on your behalf by Dr Greg Ayers dated 10 February 2011 (Ref. Exec 11-0009), previous correspondence, and the Open Letter to you I sent via email on 23 February 2011  (copy attached).

In his letter, Dr Ayers wrote “I have asked our Climate Data Services Section to provide you with the specific data you have requested in your letter.”

The specific data includes complete details, including station metadata, of the reasons for the large adjustments to the temperature records of the following sites: Omeo, Deniliquin Post Office, Nhill, Wagga Wagga AMO, Kellerberrin, and of the following Urban sites (not used in climate analyses but adjusted): Wangaratta Aero, Echuca Aerodrome, Benalla Shadford St, and Dubbo Airport AWS.

As it is now 99 days, or over 3 months, since the date of Dr Ayers’ letter, it appears that a reminder is necessary to ensure this is followed up.  This is extraordinary for such an important Ministry and reflects poorly on the Bureau of Meteorology, its Director, and the responsible Minister.

This delay could indicate either (a) inefficiency, or (b) incompetence, or (c) simple contempt for mere mortal taxpayers.

However, I am beginning to suspect there is another reason.  There is a history of delay in this matter.  It is 13 months since my first queries to Dr Jones, 10 months since I asked Dr Jones for an explanation of the apparent discrepancy between raw and adjusted data, and 7 months since my letter of complaint to you, and I am still no closer to finding the reasons for the large data adjustments.

Perhaps Dr Ayers hopes I will give up and the issue may be quietly forgotten.  This will not happen.

Or perhaps the delay is because there really are no documented reasons for the adjustments.  The longer the delay continues, the more that suspicion will grow.

I expect to receive the promised information by 24 June.

I have copied this letter to The Hon Greg Hunt MP,  Shadow Minister for Climate Action, Environment and Heritage.

I have also posted it on my blog at kenskingdom.wordpress.com.

Yours sincerely

Ken Stewart

Global Temperature Page- May 2011

May 5, 2011

This page will be reposted around the middle of each month, as soon as SOI and UAH data for the previous month are available.

Updated 18 May

I have developed a rough “rule of thumb” method for approximating annual temperature anomalies using long term values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).   My predictions for the 12 month running mean of global atmospheric temperature anomalies measured by satellite sensors and recorded as the UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) record:-

Month

Predicted 12 month running mean

Actual UAH  12 month mean

March 2011

+0.29 +/- 0.05

+0.27

April 2011

+0.23 +/- 0.05

 +0.25
(The following will be fine tuned and updated as new data become available.)

May 2011

+0.21 +/- 0.05

June 2011

+0.16

July 2011

+0.13

August 2011

+0.07

September 2011

+0.02

October 2011

 +0.01

Here is the plot of 12 month mean temperature anomaly forecasts until the end of the year, assuming La Nina fades out and the SOI returns to 0 for May and June.  If the SOI again goes strongly positive, the temperatures will go lower. (In this graph, SOI is inverted).

(Official UAH has not yet been updated for April due to the tornadoes, but Dr Roy Spencer reports +0.12.  This seems high but we shall see.  October 12 month average will be about +0.01.  With the SOI dropping rapidly I expect to see the 12 month mean temperatures bottom out in the last 3 months of the year.)

Please note- I started this method in March 2011.  Please refer to

https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/can-we-predict-future-temperatures/

I will expand on my method in a future post.

Ken Stewart, May 2011