Archive for July, 2017

The Pause Update: June 2017

July 19, 2017

Better late than never!  I’m sorry for the lateness of this post.  A couple of issues and events got in the way.

The complete UAH v6.0 data for June have been released. I present all the graphs for various regions, and as well summaries for easier comparison. I also include graphs for the North and South Temperate regions (20-60 North and South), estimated from Polar and Extra-Tropical data.

The Pause has ended globally and for all regions including the USA, Australia, and the Southern Hemisphere, except for Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar. The 12 month mean to June 2017 for the Globe is +0.36 C.

These graphs show the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than 0.1 +/-0.1C per 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures. I calculate 12 month running means to remove the small possibility of seasonal autocorrelation in the monthly anomalies. Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 38 years and seven months long- 463 months. 12 month running means commence in November 1979. The y-axes in the graphs below are at December 1978, so the vertical gridlines denote Decembers. The final plotted points are June 2017.
[CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE]

Globe:

Pause June 17 globe

The Pause has ended. A trend of +0.49 C/100 years (+/- 0.1C) since February 1998 is creeping up, but the 12 month means have peaked and are heading down.

And, for the special benefit of those who think that I am deliberately fudging data by using 12 month running means, here is the plot of monthly anomalies:

Pause June 17 globe monthly

Northern Hemisphere:

Pause June 17 NH

The Northern Hemisphere Pause has well and truly ended.

Southern Hemisphere:

Pause June 17 SH

The Pause has ended but temperatures for the last 19 years are rising very slowly.

Tropics:

Pause June 17 Tropics

The Pause in the Tropics (20N to 20S) has ended and the minimal trend is now +0.49C/ 100 years. 12 month means are dropping fast.

Northern Extra Tropics:

Pause June 17 NExt

Northern Temperate Region:

Pause June 17 N Temp

Using estimates calculated from North Polar and Northern Extra-Tropics data, the slowdown is obvious.

Southern Extra Tropics:

Pause June 17 SExt

The Pause has weakened and shortened but still persists, and 12 month means have peaked.

Southern Temperate Region:

Pause June 17 S Temp

Using estimates calculated from South Polar and Southern Extra-Tropics data, the Pause likewise persists.

Northern Polar:

Pause June 17 NP

The trend has increased and will continue to do so even though 12 month means are falling rapidly.  The strong trend in Arctic temperatures is due to a step change from 1995 – 2002, and the strong 2015 – 2016 El Nino.

Southern Polar:

Pause June 17 SP

The South Polar region has been cooling (-0.14C) for the entire record. Although the 12 month means may have peaked, this cooling trend will slow over the next few months, and Global Warming Enthusiasts may start to get excited.

USA 49 States:

Pause June 17 US49

The Pause has ended. It will not re-appear for some time.

Australia:

Pause June 17 Oz

The Pause has ended suddenly, and will not re-appear for some time.

The next graphs summarise the above plots. First, a graph of the relative length of The Pause in the various regions:

Pause length June 17

The Pause has disappeared from Australia.

Note that the Pause has ended by my criteria in all regions of Northern Hemisphere, and consequently the Globe, and the Tropics, but all southern regions have a Pause for over half the record, including the South Polar region which has been cooling for the whole record. Note that the Tropic influence has been enough to end the Pause for the Southern Hemisphere.

The variation in the linear trend for the whole record, 1978 to the present:

Trends 1978 june17

Note the decrease in trends from North Polar to South Polar.

And the variation in the linear trend since June 1998, which is about halfway between the global low point of December 1997 and the peak in December 1998:

Trends 1998 june17

For 19 years “global” warming has been dominated by the influence of the Tropics and North Polar regions.

The imbalance between the two hemispheres is obvious.

The Pause has disappeared from the USA, Australia, and the Southern Hemisphere, but not the Southern Extra-Tropics, South Temperate, and South Polar regions. El Nino tropical heat is rapidly decreasing, with all means falling. The next few months will be interesting.

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