Archive for March, 2016

The Pause Update: February 2016

March 21, 2016


Firstly, I must apologise for the late posting.  We went away for a two week road trip in early March, during which my laptop died.  As well, we have had some family issues that have taken priority.

UAH v6.0 data for February have been released. Here are updated graphs for various regions showing the furthest back one can go to show a zero or negative trend (less than +0.1C/ 100 years) in lower tropospheric temperatures.    Note: The satellite record commences in December 1978- now 37 years and 3 months long- 447 months.  12 month running means commence in November 1979.

Despite the record TLT for February, I am sorry to disappoint GWEs that The Pause has not disappeared.  In some regions it has lengthened, in others it has shortened, and in the Northern Extra-Tropics it has disappeared (by my criterion)- but mostly it has remained at the same length.



Feb 16 globe

There has been zero trend for 18 years and 10 months.

Update:  Some commenters (see below) think that use of 12 month running means are some form of trick to hide the data, and that using monthly data will show no Pause.  Poor souls.  Here is the graph of global monthly anomalies:

global monthly

18 years 7 months- not much difference, and The Pause still lives!

Fools rush in….

Northern Hemisphere:

Feb 16 NH


Southern Hemisphere:

Feb 16 SH

For well over half the record the Southern Hemisphere has zero trend.


Feb 16 Tropics

Tropical Oceans:

Feb 16 Tropic Oceans


Northern Extra-Tropics (20-60N- where most people live):

Feb 16 NH Ext Trop

The Pause has ceased in this region as the trend since July 1998 is a tad over +0.1C (+/- 0.1C) per 100 years.

Southern Hemisphere Extra-Tropics (mostly water):

Feb 16 SH Ext Trop

But still strong in the South!

North Polar:

Feb 16 NP

The Pause has lengthened by three months.

South Polar:

Feb 16 SP

For the whole of the satellite record, the South Polar region has been cooling.  So much for a fingerprint of warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect being greater warming at the Poles!


Feb 16 Aus

One month longer.

USA 49 states:

Feb 16 USA

Despite all expectations to the contrary, The Pause lives on!